Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Dylan Beavers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 0 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eli White singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Trevor Story scores. Nick Sogard scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd. (inning 6) — -29% Red Sox
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder Heston Kjerstad. Mickey Gasper scores. Trevor Story scores.5–0
6Connor Wong singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Jarren Duran scores. Eli White to 2nd.3–0
6Eli White singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Trevor Story scores. Nick Sogard scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
