Guardians at Orioles
Last play · Jo Adell strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Orioles100%
CLE 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 2 – 8 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Beavers doubles (19) on a fly ball to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Leody Taveras scores. Carlos Narváez scores. (inning 3) — +25% Orioles
6Coby Mayo homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field.5–9
6Patrick Bailey doubles (8) on a fly ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Angel Genao scores.5–8
6Nathaniel Lowe homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Travis Bazzana scores.4–8
3Dylan Beavers singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Chase DeLauter, deflected by second baseman Angel Genao. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.2–8
3Leody Taveras singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jo Adell. Jackson Holliday scores. Jeremiah Jackson to 2nd.2–7
3Jeremiah Jackson singles on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Christian Encarnacion-Strand scores. Jackson Holliday to 3rd.2–6
3Rece Hinds out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jo Adell. Coby Mayo scores. Christian Encarnacion-Strand to 3rd. Jackson Holliday to 2nd.2–5
3Jackson Holliday singles on a line drive to left fielder Jo Adell. Pete Alonso scores. Coby Mayo to 3rd. Christian Encarnacion-Strand to 2nd.2–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
