Tigers at Red Sox
Last play · Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Jarren Duran scores. Marcelo Mayer to 2nd.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
DET 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 0 – 0 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out swinging. (inning 10) — +18% Red Sox
10Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Jarren Duran scores. Marcelo Mayer to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
