Tigers at Red Sox
Last play · Masataka Yoshida grounds out, second baseman Gleyber Torres to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
DET 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 5 – 1 BOS
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dillon Dingler homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Gleyber Torres scores. Matt Vierling scores. (inning 5) — -29% Tigers
9Caleb Durbin doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Wilyer Abreu scores.6–2
9Gleyber Torres singles on a fly ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Javier Báez scores. Kerry Carpenter to 2nd.6–1
5Dillon Dingler homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Gleyber Torres scores. Matt Vierling scores.5–1
5Jahmai Jones homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
1Willson Contreras homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Dillon Dingler doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Matt Vierling scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
