Tigers at Red Sox
Last play · Dillon Dingler grounds out, shortstop Trevor Story to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
DET 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 2 – 2 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Masataka Yoshida scores. Trevor Story scores. Caleb Durbin out at home, first baseman Colt Keith to catcher Jake Rogers. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd. (inning 7) — +31% Red Sox
9Riley Greene doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu, deflected by center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Kevin McGonigle scores. Gleyber Torres scores.6–8
9Gleyber Torres singles on a fly ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd.4–8
8Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Masataka Yoshida scores. Trevor Story scores.3–8
7Carlos Narváez singles on a ground ball to second baseman Gleyber Torres. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.3–6
7Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Masataka Yoshida scores. Trevor Story scores. Caleb Durbin out at home, first baseman Colt Keith to catcher Jake Rogers. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd.3–5
6Roman Anthony singles on a line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Carlos Narváez scores.3–3
6Jahmai Jones singles on a line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Riley Greene scores. Dillon Dingler to 3rd.3–2
4Hao-Yu Lee singles on a line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Dillon Dingler scores. Kerry Carpenter to 2nd.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
