Tigers at Red Sox
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela pops out to first baseman Spencer Torkelson in foul territory.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
DET 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 4 – 1 BOS
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kerry Carpenter walks. Kevin McGonigle scores. Colt Keith to 3rd. Riley Greene to 2nd. (inning 1) — -12% Tigers
5Connor Wong grounds into a double play, second baseman Gleyber Torres to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Wilyer Abreu scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. Caleb Durbin out at 2nd. Connor Wong out at 1st.4–1
4Kevin McGonigle singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Javier Báez scores.4–0
4Jake Rogers out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Wenceel Pérez scores.3–0
4Kerry Carpenter homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
1Kerry Carpenter walks. Kevin McGonigle scores. Colt Keith to 3rd. Riley Greene to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
