Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · Caleb Durbin grounds out, shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
NYY 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 4 – 0 BOS
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Amed Rosario homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Aaron Judge scores. Giancarlo Stanton scores. (inning 1) — -28% Yankees
9Jarren Duran singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Trevor Story scores.4–1
3Amed Rosario out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Aaron Judge scores.4–0
1Amed Rosario homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Aaron Judge scores. Giancarlo Stanton scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
