Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
NYY 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 0 BOS
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Giancarlo Stanton doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Amed Rosario scores. Aaron Judge scores. (inning 6) — -24% Yankees
8Randal Grichuk doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Cody Bellinger scores.4–0
6Giancarlo Stanton doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Amed Rosario scores. Aaron Judge scores.3–0
2Giancarlo Stanton homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
