Astros at Red Sox
Last play · Wilyer Abreu grounds out, third baseman Braden Shewmake to first baseman Isaac Paredes.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
HOU 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 6 – 1 BOS
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brice Matthews homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Walker scores. Jose Altuve scores. (inning 4) — -29% Astros
7Trevor Story singles on a fly ball to left fielder Dustin Harris. Roman Anthony scores. Wilyer Abreu to 2nd.6–3
7Wilyer Abreu singles on a fly ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Willson Contreras scores. Roman Anthony to 3rd.6–2
5Willson Contreras out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brice Matthews. Connor Wong scores.6–1
5Christian Walker homers (8) on a line drive to left field.6–0
4Carlos Correa singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Cam Smith scores.5–0
4Brice Matthews homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Walker scores. Jose Altuve scores.4–0
1Christian Walker singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Carlos Correa scores. Isaac Paredes to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
