Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · Willson Contreras grounds out, third baseman Ryan McMahon to first baseman Ben Rice.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
NYY 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 2 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Bellinger singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Trent Grisham scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. José Caballero to 2nd. (inning 7) — -41% Yankees
7Aaron Judge singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. José Caballero scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd. Aaron Judge to 2nd. Aaron Judge advances to 2nd, on a fielding error by right fielder Wilyer Abreu.4–2
7Cody Bellinger singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Trent Grisham scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. José Caballero to 2nd.3–2
5Carlos Narváez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
5Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
2Marcelo Mayer doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Trevor Story scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
