Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Marcelo Mayer grounds out, second baseman Ben Williamson to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
TB 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 3 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Junior Caminero scores. Jonny DeLuca scores. Ben Williamson to 2nd. (inning 6) — -29% Rays
9Junior Caminero homers (10) on a line drive to center field. Richie Palacios scores.8–4
8Wilyer Abreu out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Jarren Duran scores.6–4
8Chandler Simpson triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Ben Williamson scores.6–3
6Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Junior Caminero scores. Jonny DeLuca scores. Ben Williamson to 2nd.5–3
2Caleb Durbin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Marcelo Mayer scores. Connor Wong to 2nd.3–3
2Connor Wong reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Taylor Walls. Masataka Yoshida scores. Marcelo Mayer to 3rd. Throwing error by shortstop Taylor Walls.3–2
2Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to shortstop Taylor Walls, deflected by third baseman Junior Caminero. Trevor Story scores. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd.3–1
2Yandy Díaz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Nick Fortes scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd. Taylor Walls to 2nd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
