Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Jonny DeLuca pops out softly to first baseman Romy Gonzalez in foul territory.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TB 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masataka Yoshida homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — +11% Red Sox
7Carlos Narváez homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.0–10
6Caleb Durbin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ryan Vilade. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.0–9
6Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (23) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Carlos Narváez scores.0–8
6Tsung-Che Cheng singles on a soft bunt ground ball to catcher Nick Fortes. Jarren Duran scores. Carlos Narváez to 2nd.0–7
6Carlos Narváez singles on a soft bunt ground ball to catcher Nick Fortes. Romy Gonzalez scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd. Throwing error by catcher Nick Fortes.0–6
6Jarren Duran singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ryan Vilade, deflected by second baseman Ben Williamson. Caleb Durbin scores. Masataka Yoshida scores. Romy Gonzalez to 3rd.0–5
4Masataka Yoshida homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
2Carlos Narváez singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Masataka Yoshida scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
