Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran flies out to left fielder Chandler Simpson.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
TB 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 0 BOS
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 1) — -12% Rays
6Mickey Gasper singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Trevor Story scores.4–1
6Cedric Mullins out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Tyler Samaniego to second baseman Marcelo Mayer. Ben Williamson scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.4–0
3Ben Williamson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Chandler Simpson scores.3–0
3Chandler Simpson reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Trevor Story. Nick Fortes scores. Chandler Simpson to 2nd.2–0
1Junior Caminero homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
