Phillies at Red Sox
Last play · Marcelo Mayer grounds out, second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
PHI 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 0 BOS
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a fly ball to right fielder Adolis García. Mickey Gasper scores. Trevor Story to 3rd. (inning 7) — +16% Red Sox
7Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a fly ball to right fielder Adolis García. Mickey Gasper scores. Trevor Story to 3rd.2–1
2Bryson Stott hits a ground-rule double (6) on a line drive to right field. Brandon Marsh scores.2–0
1Kyle Schwarber homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
