Phillies at Red Sox
Last play · Alec Bohm strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
PHI 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 1 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Wilyer Abreu scores. (inning 6) — +31% Red Sox
6Ceddanne Rafaela homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–3
3Justin Crawford homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
2Trevor Story homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
