Phillies at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
PHI 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 0 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Schwarber homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. Trea Turner scores. (inning 8) — -39% Phillies
8Wilyer Abreu singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Andruw Monasterio scores.3–1
8Phillies challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Bryson Stott singles on a ground ball to third baseman Caleb Durbin. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.3–0
8Kyle Schwarber homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. Trea Turner scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
