Twins at Red Sox
Last play · Wilyer Abreu grounds into a double play, second baseman Luke Keaschall to shortstop Ryan Kreidler to first baseman Kody Clemens. Jarren Duran out at 2nd. Wilyer Abreu out at 1st.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
MIN 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Martin homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Brooks Lee scores. (inning 7) — -41% Twins
9Trevor Larnach walks. Brooks Lee scores. Austin Martin to 3rd. James Outman to 2nd.8–6
7Austin Martin homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Brooks Lee scores.7–6
7Byron Buxton homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Luke Keaschall scores.5–6
4Jarren Duran grounds out to first baseman Josh Bell. Carlos Narváez scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd.3–6
4Caleb Durbin hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by pitcher Connor Prielipp. Nick Sogard scores. Carlos Narváez to 3rd. Caleb Durbin to 2nd.3–5
2Byron Buxton singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ryan Kreidler scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd. Luke Keaschall to 2nd.3–4
2Luke Keaschall singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Gabriel Gonzalez scores. Ryan Kreidler to 3rd. Kody Clemens to 2nd.2–4
2Ryan Kreidler doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Josh Bell scores. Gabriel Gonzalez to 3rd.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
