Twins at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jarren Duran called out on strikes.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
MIN 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 4 – 1 BOS
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Martin doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach to 3rd. (inning 1) — -12% Twins
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa walks. Willson Contreras scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd. Connor Wong to 2nd.4–2
5Orlando Arcia singles on a ground ball to shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, deflected by pitcher Brayan Bello. Austin Martin scores. Josh Bell to 2nd.4–1
5Red Sox challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Trevor Larnach scores. Austin Martin to 3rd.3–1
4Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Mickey Gasper scores. Willson Contreras out at home on the throw, right fielder Austin Martin to second baseman Orlando Arcia to catcher Victor Caratini.2–1
1Josh Bell out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Trevor Larnach scores.2–0
1Austin Martin doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
