Twins at Red Sox
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela flies out to right fielder Austin Martin.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
MIN 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ryan Kreidler scores. Austin Martin scores. Brooks Lee to 2nd. (inning 6) — -29% Twins
9Red Sox challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Red Sox challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Isiah Kiner-Falefa doubles (2) on a fly ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Nick Sogard scores. Connor Wong out at home on the throw, left fielder Trevor Larnach to shortstop Ryan Kreidler to catcher Victor Caratini.6–5
6Brooks Lee singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ryan Kreidler scores. Austin Martin scores. Brooks Lee to 2nd.6–4
6Austin Martin doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Orlando Arcia scores. Ryan Kreidler to 3rd.4–4
4Marcelo Mayer singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Austin Martin. Masataka Yoshida scores.3–4
4Willson Contreras homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Wilyer Abreu scores.3–3
3Victor Caratini grounds into a double play, shortstop Marcelo Mayer to second baseman Nick Sogard to first baseman Willson Contreras. Trevor Larnach scores. Josh Bell to 3rd. Kody Clemens out at 2nd. Victor Caratini out at 1st.3–1
3Trevor Larnach singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Brooks Lee scores.2–1
2Masataka Yoshida homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
