Braves at Red Sox
Last play · Wilyer Abreu grounds out, pitcher Raisel Iglesias to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
ATL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 2 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Mauricio Dubón scores. (inning 5) — -25% Braves
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Mickey Gasper scores. Nick Sogard scores.7–6
8Michael Harris II homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Mike Yastrzemski scores.7–4
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.5–4
6Mickey Gasper grounds into a double play, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to first baseman Matt Olson. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd. Masataka Yoshida out at 2nd. Mickey Gasper out at 1st.5–3
6Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Michael Harris II scores.5–2
6Dominic Smith grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras. Eli White scores. Michael Harris II to 3rd.4–2
6Michael Harris II hits a ground-rule double (6) on a line drive to right-center field. Austin Riley scores. Eli White to 3rd.3–2
5Matt Olson homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Mauricio Dubón scores.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
