Braves at Red Sox
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
ATL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 2 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-142 / +118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ronald Acuña Jr. hits a grand slam (3) to left center field. Jorge Mateo scores. Dominic Smith scores. Mike Yastrzemski scores. (inning 6) — -31% Braves
9Ozzie Albies homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Olson scores.10–2
7Michael Harris II homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.8–2
6Ronald Acuña Jr. hits a grand slam (3) to left center field. Jorge Mateo scores. Dominic Smith scores. Mike Yastrzemski scores.7–2
6Mike Yastrzemski walks. Michael Harris II scores. Jorge Mateo to 3rd. Dominic Smith to 2nd.3–2
4Jarren Duran singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Caleb Durbin scores.2–2
4Caleb Durbin doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd.2–1
4Dominic Smith singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ozzie Albies scores. Jorge Mateo to 3rd.2–0
4Jorge Mateo singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nick Sogard, deflected by pitcher Payton Tolle. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
