Braves at Red Sox
ATL0–
BOS8Last play · Chadwick Tromp lines out to third baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
ATL 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcelo Mayer reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Matt Olson. Masataka Yoshida scores. Mickey Gasper to 3rd. (inning 4) — +13% Red Sox
8Jarren Duran homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.0–8
7Marcelo Mayer singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Mickey Gasper scores.0–7
4Wilyer Abreu singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Jarren Duran scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.0–6
4Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Marcelo Mayer scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd. Fielding error by catcher Chadwick Tromp.0–4
4Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Mickey Gasper scores. Marcelo Mayer to 2nd.0–2
4Marcelo Mayer reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Matt Olson. Masataka Yoshida scores. Mickey Gasper to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.