Orioles at Red Sox
Last play · Adley Rutschman lines out sharply to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
BAL 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 8 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Caleb Durbin scores. (inning 3) — +17% Red Sox
7Adley Rutschman triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Taylor Ward scores.1–8
5Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to first baseman Pete Alonso. Caleb Durbin scores.0–8
5Caleb Durbin doubles (13) on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.0–7
5Isiah Kiner-Falefa doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Mickey Gasper scores.0–6
5Mickey Gasper triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Willson Contreras scores. Masataka Yoshida scores.0–5
3Wilyer Abreu homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Caleb Durbin scores.0–3
1Wilyer Abreu singles on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Jarren Duran scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
