Orioles at Red Sox
Last play · Mickey Gasper flies out to right fielder Colton Cowser.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
BAL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 4 – 2 BOS
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. Adley Rutschman scores. (inning 3) — -26% Orioles
5Marcelo Mayer out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Mickey Gasper scores.4–2
4Blaze Alexander out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Tyler O'Neill scores.4–1
3Pete Alonso homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. Adley Rutschman scores.3–1
2Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Coby Mayo homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Wilyer Abreu out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Jarren Duran scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
