Orioles at Red Sox
Last play · Caleb Durbin lines out to center fielder Leody Taveras.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
BAL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 8 – 0 BOS
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Coby Mayo doubles (6) on a fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Samuel Basallo scores. Leody Taveras scores. Colton Cowser scores. (inning 1) — -16% Orioles
9Willson Contreras homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.8–2
6Willson Contreras singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu to 2nd.8–1
5Colton Cowser out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Samuel Basallo scores.8–0
5Samuel Basallo doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Pete Alonso scores.7–0
1Taylor Ward singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Coby Mayo scores. Jackson Holliday to 2nd.6–0
1Coby Mayo doubles (6) on a fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Samuel Basallo scores. Leody Taveras scores. Colton Cowser scores.5–0
1Leody Taveras singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Gunnar Henderson scores. Samuel Basallo to 3rd.2–0
1Adley Rutschman singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Taylor Ward scores. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
