Rangers at Red Sox
Last play · Justin Foscue pops out to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TEX 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+116 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. (inning 1) — +14% Red Sox
8Willson Contreras doubles (10) on a line drive to center fielder Michael Helman. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–10
8Ceddanne Rafaela homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Connor Wong scores.1–9
7Wilyer Abreu homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.1–7
5Caleb Durbin out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Wyatt Langford. Willson Contreras scores.1–6
5Willson Contreras reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Josh Jung. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras to 2nd.1–5
5Wilyer Abreu doubles (14) on a fly ball to left fielder Nicky Lopez. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.1–4
5Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nicky Lopez. Mickey Gasper scores.1–3
1Willson Contreras homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
