Rangers at Red Sox
Last play · Andruw Monasterio strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
TEX 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 6 – 2 BOS
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Higashioka homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Justin Foscue scores. Cody Freeman scores. (inning 2) — -25% Rangers
8Wilyer Abreu singles on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Masataka Yoshida scores.6–4
6Willson Contreras homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field.6–3
4Brandon Nimmo doubles (14) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Alejandro Osuna scores. Wyatt Langford scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.6–2
2Marcelo Mayer grounds out softly to first baseman Jake Burger. Caleb Durbin scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd.4–2
2Willson Contreras homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.4–1
2Kyle Higashioka homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Justin Foscue scores. Cody Freeman scores.4–0
1Wyatt Langford homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
