Blue Jays at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
TOR 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 0 BOS
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Davis Schneider homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — -18% Blue Jays
9George Springer homers (7) on a line drive to left center field. Myles Straw scores.6–1
8Jarren Duran homers (12) on a line drive to center field.4–1
6Davis Schneider doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.4–0
5Andrés Giménez homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.3–0
5Davis Schneider homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
3George Springer out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Andrés Giménez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
