Rangers at Red Sox
Last play · Ezequiel Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TEX 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 2 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Carlos Narváez scores. Andruw Monasterio to 2nd. (inning 7) — +31% Red Sox
8Jarren Duran homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Willson Contreras scores.3–6
8Jake Burger homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.3–4
7Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Carlos Narváez scores. Andruw Monasterio to 2nd.2–4
4Michael Helman out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Josh Jung scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd.2–2
3Wilyer Abreu singles on a line drive to right fielder Ezequiel Duran. Marcelo Mayer scores. Mickey Gasper to 3rd.1–2
3Mickey Gasper singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ezequiel Duran. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Marcelo Mayer to 2nd.1–1
3Wyatt Langford singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Nicky Lopez scores. Wyatt Langford to 2nd. Wyatt Langford advances to 2nd, on a fielding error by second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
