Blue Jays at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran pops out to third baseman Kazuma Okamoto.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
TOR 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 0 BOS
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Valenzuela doubles (6) on a fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ernie Clement scores. (inning 9) — -34% Blue Jays
9Brandon Valenzuela doubles (6) on a fly ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ernie Clement scores.4–3
8Caleb Durbin homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
8Isiah Kiner-Falefa homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
7Willson Contreras grounds out, shortstop Andrés Giménez to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.3–1
7Nathan Lukes homers (2) on a line drive to right center field.3–0
2Andrés Giménez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Kazuma Okamoto scores.2–0
1Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (4) on a line drive to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
