Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · Ben Rice grounds out softly, pitcher Aroldis Chapman to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
NYY 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-148 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Caleb Durbin homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Willson Contreras scores. (inning 5) — +25% Red Sox
8Ceddanne Rafaela grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Anthony Volpe. Andruw Monasterio scores. Carlos Narváez to 3rd. Nate Eaton out at 2nd. Ceddanne Rafaela to 1st.3–6
8Red Sox challenged (hit by pitch), call on the field was overturned: Nate Eaton hit by pitch. Caleb Durbin scores. Andruw Monasterio to 3rd. Carlos Narváez to 2nd.3–5
7Paul Goldschmidt grounds out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to first baseman Willson Contreras. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Austin Wells to 2nd.3–4
5Caleb Durbin homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Willson Contreras scores.2–4
5Jarren Duran out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder José Caballero. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.2–2
5Willson Contreras reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Amed Rosario. Masataka Yoshida scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. Willson Contreras to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Amed Rosario.2–1
4José Caballero homers (8) on a line drive to left center field.2–0
1Jasson Domínguez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Amed Rosario to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
