Blue Jays at Red Sox
Last play · Willson Contreras strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
TOR 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 0 BOS
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Giménez singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Davis Schneider scores. (inning 3) — -14% Blue Jays
8Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, deflected by second baseman Andruw Monasterio. Andrés Giménez scores.3–0
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounds out, third baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to first baseman Willson Contreras. Andrés Giménez scores.2–0
3Andrés Giménez singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Davis Schneider scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
