Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · Jasson Domínguez pops out to first baseman Willson Contreras in foul territory.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
NYY 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-123 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masataka Yoshida homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 1) — +13% Red Sox
5Max Schuemann homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
3Willson Contreras doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Max Schuemann. Masataka Yoshida scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.0–4
2Anthony Seigler homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
1Masataka Yoshida homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
