Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran singles on a line drive to center fielder Max Schuemann. Masataka Yoshida scores.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
NYY 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 2 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tsung-Che Cheng out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cody Bellinger. Andruw Monasterio scores. Masataka Yoshida to 3rd. (inning 10) — +42% Red Sox
10Jarren Duran singles on a line drive to center fielder Max Schuemann. Masataka Yoshida scores.4–5
10Tsung-Che Cheng out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cody Bellinger. Andruw Monasterio scores. Masataka Yoshida to 3rd.4–4
10Anthony Seigler singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cody Bellinger. Caleb Durbin scores.4–3
10Red Sox challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Austin Wells reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by pitcher Justin Slaten. Amed Rosario scores.4–2
10Amed Rosario singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Max Schuemann scores. Amed Rosario to 2nd. Amed Rosario advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by right fielder Wilyer Abreu.3–2
9Paul Goldschmidt reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Tsung-Che Cheng. Anthony Volpe scores.2–2
9Ben Rice flies out sharply to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. José Caballero scores. Anthony Volpe to 3rd. Throwing error by right fielder Wilyer Abreu.1–2
4Caleb Durbin singles on a line drive to center fielder Spencer Jones. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
