Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · José Caballero flies out to left fielder Jarren Duran.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
NYY 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tsung-Che Cheng grounds into a force out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to shortstop Anthony Volpe. Caleb Durbin scores. Anthony Seigler to 3rd. Connor Wong out at 2nd. Tsung-Che Cheng to 1st. (inning 2) — +10% Red Sox
8Connor Wong singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Jarren Duran scores.1–6
8Austin Wells grounds out, second baseman Anthony Seigler to first baseman Willson Contreras. Anthony Volpe scores.1–5
6Connor Wong out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Spencer Jones. Caleb Durbin scores.0–5
3Willson Contreras homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.0–4
2Mickey Gasper grounds into a force out, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to shortstop Anthony Volpe. Anthony Seigler scores. Tsung-Che Cheng out at 2nd. Mickey Gasper to 1st.0–3
2Tsung-Che Cheng grounds into a force out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to shortstop Anthony Volpe. Caleb Durbin scores. Anthony Seigler to 3rd. Connor Wong out at 2nd. Tsung-Che Cheng to 1st.0–2
1Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to center fielder Spencer Jones. Wilyer Abreu scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
