Nationals at Red Sox
Last play · Andruw Monasterio lines out to third baseman Curtis Mead.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
WSH 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 1 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 10 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. doubles (15) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Nasim Nuñez scores. Keibert Ruiz scores. (inning 7) — -22% Nationals
8James Wood doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Keibert Ruiz scores.8–1
8Keibert Ruiz doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Daylen Lile scores. Nasim Nuñez scores.7–1
8CJ Abrams homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.5–1
7Luis García Jr. doubles (15) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Nasim Nuñez scores. Keibert Ruiz scores.4–1
7Keibert Ruiz singles on a ground ball to first baseman Andruw Monasterio. José Tena scores. Nasim Nuñez to 3rd.2–1
5James Wood singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu, deflected by second baseman Anthony Seigler. Daylen Lile scores. Keibert Ruiz out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Wilyer Abreu to shortstop Tsung-Che Cheng to third baseman Caleb Durbin.1–1
1Willson Contreras reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Curtis Mead. Anthony Seigler scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
