Nationals at Red Sox
Last play · Jorbit Vivas strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
WSH 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+148 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu scores. (inning 1) — +31% Red Sox
6CJ Abrams doubles (16) on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Keibert Ruiz scores. Andrés Chaparro scores. Curtis Mead to 3rd.3–6
3Carlos Narváez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dylan Crews. Anthony Seigler scores.1–6
2Wilyer Abreu out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder James Wood. Tsung-Che Cheng scores.1–5
1Caleb Durbin homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.1–4
1Willson Contreras homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–3
1James Wood homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
