Nationals at Red Sox
Last play · Willson Contreras pops out to second baseman Jorbit Vivas.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
WSH 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 7 – 0 BOS
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Chaparro homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Curtis Mead scores. (inning 1) — -21% Nationals
8Nate Eaton grounds into a force out, shortstop Nasim Nuñez to second baseman Jorbit Vivas. Willson Contreras scores. Romy Gonzalez to 3rd. Caleb Durbin out at 2nd. Nate Eaton to 1st.10–2
8Caleb Durbin walks. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd. Romy Gonzalez to 2nd.10–1
7James Wood homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field. Jacob Young scores. Drew Millas scores.10–0
4Jacob Young doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Nate Eaton. Luis García Jr. scores.7–0
4Daylen Lile grounds into a double play, second baseman Anthony Seigler to shortstop Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Willson Contreras. Curtis Mead scores. Luis García Jr. to 3rd. Dylan Crews out at 2nd. Daylen Lile out at 1st.6–0
4Luis García Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Nate Eaton. Drew Millas scores. James Wood scores. Curtis Mead to 2nd.5–0
4Nasim Nuñez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.3–0
1Andrés Chaparro homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Curtis Mead scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
