Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Junior Caminero lines out to left fielder Jarren Duran.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TB 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Caleb Durbin reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Junior Caminero. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd. Caleb Durbin to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Junior Caminero. (inning 3) — +23% Red Sox
5Willson Contreras homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.1–6
3Romy Gonzalez grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Willson Contreras scores.1–4
3Caleb Durbin reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Junior Caminero. Wilyer Abreu scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd. Caleb Durbin to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Junior Caminero.1–3
2Andruw Monasterio doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Caleb Durbin scores.1–1
2Victor Mesa Jr. hits an inside-the-park home run (7) on a line drive to right-center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
