Rays at Red Sox
TB6–
BOS7Last play · Jonny DeLuca grounds out, shortstop Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TB 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 5 – 3 BOS
Rays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. (inning 7) — +44% Red Sox
7Wilyer Abreu homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.6–7
7Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (25) on a fly ball to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Jarren Duran scores.6–5
7Masataka Yoshida grounds out, shortstop Ben Williamson to first baseman Ryan Vilade. Andruw Monasterio scores. Jarren Duran to 2nd.6–4
7Jonny DeLuca homers (6) on a line drive to left center field.6–3
4Yandy Díaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Jahmai Jones. Richie Palacios scores.5–3
4Victor Mesa Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.4–3
4Ben Williamson grounds out, shortstop Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Willson Contreras.3–3
3Wilyer Abreu homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.