Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Nick Fortes strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TB 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. (inning 1) — +24% Red Sox
4Anthony Seigler doubles (7) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Tsung-Che Cheng scores.3–5
3Wilyer Abreu homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.3–4
3Junior Caminero homers (29) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
1Willson Contreras homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
1Wilyer Abreu homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.2–2
1Jonny DeLuca singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Junior Caminero scores. Ryan Vilade scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd. Jonny DeLuca to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Jarren Duran.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
