Orioles at Red Sox
Last play · Tyler O'Neill lines out to shortstop Tsung-Che Cheng.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
BAL 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Caleb Durbin homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 8) — +29% Red Sox
8Caleb Durbin homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.5–6
7Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Tsung-Che Cheng scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd. Ceddanne Rafaela advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Taylor Ward.5–5
7Tyler O'Neill grounds out, second baseman Anthony Seigler to first baseman Willson Contreras. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd.5–4
6Willson Contreras doubles (17) on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Wilyer Abreu scores.4–4
6Christian Encarnacion-Strand singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, deflected by second baseman Anthony Seigler. Leody Taveras scores. Jeremiah Jackson to 3rd.4–3
6Jeremiah Jackson singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Tyler O'Neill scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.3–3
5Christian Encarnacion-Strand homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
3Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to second baseman Jeremiah Jackson, deflected by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
