Blue Jays at Red Sox
Last play · Wilyer Abreu challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Wilyer Abreu called out on strikes.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
TOR 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 5 – 0 BOS
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -116
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · George Springer homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores. (inning 3) — -26% Blue Jays
9Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a ground ball to second baseman Anthony Seigler, deflected by pitcher Alec Gamboa. Andrés Giménez scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.6–0
3Ernie Clement doubles (24) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Daulton Varsho scores.5–0
3George Springer homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores.4–0
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Nathan Lukes scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
