Blue Jays @ Red Sox — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

TOR4–

BOS6

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	9	1
BOS	1	0	2	0	0	1	0	2	·	6	12	1

Last play · Alejandro Kirk strikes out on a foul tip.

Win probability

Red Sox100%

TOR 0%BOS 100%

First 5 (F5)

final

TOR 0 – 3 BOS

Red Sox led after 5

Total runs

8.5

opened 8.5

fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%

Run line

-1.5

Moneyline

reference

+109 / -131

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.

Red Sox favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓

Biggest swing · Romy Gonzalez doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Jarren Duran scores. (inning 8) — +29% Red Sox

8Anthony Seigler doubles (9) on a fly ball to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Romy Gonzalez scores.4–6

8Romy Gonzalez doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Jarren Duran scores.4–5

8Andrés Giménez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Nathan Lukes scores.4–4

7Kazuma Okamoto homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. Ernie Clement scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.3–4

6Andruw Monasterio out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Masataka Yoshida scores.0–4

3Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Ceddanne Rafaela homers (10) on a line drive to left field. Anthony Seigler scores.0–3

1Anthony Seigler homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.0–1

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Blue Jays at Red Sox