Orioles at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran pops out to second baseman Jackson Holliday.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
BAL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 4 – 1 BOS
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Gunnar Henderson scores. Tyler O'Neill scores. (inning 1) — -28% Orioles
7Colton Cowser walks.5–1
4Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Willson Contreras scores.4–1
1Johnathan Rodríguez doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Dylan Beavers scores.4–0
1Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Gunnar Henderson scores. Tyler O'Neill scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
