White Sox at Red Sox
Last play · Tristan Peters grounds out, first baseman Nick Sogard to pitcher Brayan Bello.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
CWS 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 1 – 7 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+138 / -147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Caleb Durbin hits a grand slam (11) to left center field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Willson Contreras scores. Masataka Yoshida scores. (inning 1) — +18% Red Sox
8Wilyer Abreu homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.2–14
6Masataka Yoshida doubles (12) on a fly ball to center fielder Tristan Peters. Willson Contreras scores.2–13
6Willson Contreras singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randal Grichuk. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Willson Contreras to 2nd. Willson Contreras advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Randal Grichuk.2–12
6Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (28) on a line drive to left fielder Randal Grichuk. Andruw Monasterio scores. Nick Sogard scores.2–11
6Andruw Monasterio singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tristan Peters. Caleb Durbin scores. Jarren Duran scores.2–9
6Braden Montgomery grounds out, second baseman Nick Sogard to first baseman Willson Contreras. Colson Montgomery scores. Sam Antonacci to 2nd.2–7
5Wilyer Abreu homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.1–7
5Miguel Vargas out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Chase Meidroth scores.1–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
