Blue Jays at Red Sox
Last play · Yohendrick Piñango lines out to left fielder Jarren Duran.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TOR 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+122 / -147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Willson Contreras scores. Caleb Durbin scores. (inning 4) — +17% Red Sox
9Andrés Giménez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Caleb Durbin. Daulton Varsho scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd.1–6
7Wilyer Abreu doubles (22) on a fly ball to left fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Jahmai Jones scores.0–6
7Jahmai Jones doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Jarren Duran scores. Andruw Monasterio scores.0–5
4Jarren Duran singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Willson Contreras scores. Caleb Durbin scores.0–3
3Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Andruw Monasterio scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
