White Sox at Red Sox
Last play · Caleb Durbin singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tristan Peters. Nick Sogard scores. Wilyer Abreu to 2nd.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
CWS 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 7 – 5 BOS
White Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+179 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chase Meidroth homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Braden Montgomery scores. (inning 10) — -44% White Sox
13Caleb Durbin singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tristan Peters. Nick Sogard scores. Wilyer Abreu to 2nd.11–12
12Jake Rogers out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tristan Peters. Jarren Duran scores.11–11
12Sam Antonacci singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Drew Romo scores. Braden Montgomery to 2nd.11–10
11Wilyer Abreu out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tristan Peters. Nick Sogard scores.10–10
11Colson Montgomery out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Miguel Vargas scores.10–9
10Anthony Seigler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tristan Peters. Jahmai Jones scores. Andruw Monasterio to 3rd. Jarren Duran to 2nd.9–9
10Andruw Monasterio doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Wilyer Abreu scores. Jahmai Jones to 3rd.9–8
10Chase Meidroth homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Braden Montgomery scores.9–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
