Athletics at Red Sox
Last play · Alika Williams grounds out, shortstop Andruw Monasterio to first baseman Nick Sogard.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
ATH 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 9 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+240 / -260
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Andruw Monasterio scores. (inning 2) — +20% Red Sox
7Caleb Durbin doubles (22) on a fly ball to left fielder Carlos Cortes. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.1–13
7Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jonathan Ornelas. Jake Rogers scores.1–12
6Masataka Yoshida out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Eli White scores.1–11
6Caleb Durbin out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Eli White to 3rd.1–10
5Tyler Soderstrom homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.1–9
4Andruw Monasterio singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Masataka Yoshida scores. Andruw Monasterio out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Tyler Soderstrom to second baseman Jonathan Ornelas.0–9
4Masataka Yoshida doubles (14) on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Wilyer Abreu scores.0–8
4Wilyer Abreu singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Nick Sogard scores.0–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
