D-backs at Red Sox
AZ1–
BOS11Last play · Tim Tawa grounds out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to first baseman Nick Sogard.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
AZ 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 7 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eli White singles on a line drive to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Caleb Durbin scores. (inning 2) — +10% Red Sox
7Wilyer Abreu singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jordan Lawlar. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.1–11
7Mickey Gasper homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–10
6Adley Rutschman doubles (20) on a line drive to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–9
6Wilyer Abreu singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.1–8
6Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Eli White. Ildemaro Vargas scores.1–7
5Mickey Gasper grounds out, second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Tim Tawa. Caleb Durbin scores.0–7
5Andruw Monasterio out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Adley Rutschman scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd.0–6
5Willson Contreras homers (25) on a fly ball to left field.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.